r/dataisbeautiful Dec 01 '22 Silver 1 Gold 1 Helpful 1 Wholesome 2 Take My Energy 1

[OC] HDI vs Fertility Rate of countries over the years 1990 to 2020. OC

13.8k Upvotes

749 comments sorted by

4.2k

u/a-ha_partridge Dec 01 '22 Wholesome

I think that your plot might be trying to fertilize something.

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u/fazhenda Dec 01 '22 edited Dec 01 '22

Ironic to note that the spermy dots in the chart go to nothing

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u/mark-haus Dec 01 '22

As does 99.999999% of all sperm, so quite a good metaphor really

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u/f1g4 Dec 01 '22 edited Dec 01 '22

It's actually waaaay more 9s than that. Considering you have 1-4 kids in your lifetime... Maybe 1-2 abortions too. A really good conception/(ejected sperms) is still really small. Let's say you'd ejaculate 20 times a month (seems reasonable) it's 240 times a year. For a sexually "active male" (15 to 70yo, is 55years) it's 13'200 times. On average there are 100million (106) sperms in a shot. So around 1.32 • 1012 sperms. 1320 billions. That's quite a lot. So 99.9999999999954545454(...)%.

As in 100*(1.32 1012 - 6)/(1.32 1012 )

Which is roughly 1 in 200 billion sperms finally make it! If we had a thousand countries with the population of the USA it would be one person among those. Neat.

where 6 is number of successful sperms that "went somewhere".

Edit.: [BIG DISCLAIMER] I have failed to consider people having unprotected sex with pill birth control. There could totally be conception and discard. Unfortunately it's incredibly difficult to estimate and average for that so we'd just consider the standard case where the birth control method prevents conception. nevermind i don't know how birth control works.

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u/bebe_bird Dec 01 '22

Woman here, so could be way off base - but is 20x a month really reasonable across that whole time frame? I would think that once you get to 40, it might be more like 5-10x/month, and 70 is probably 2x/month. I mean, still a really good order of magnitude calculation, I'm not actually upset if you're off by 10 or even 100 - it still gets the point across nicely.

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u/walt333 Dec 01 '22

I'm in my early thirties with a partner, and my monthly count is probably closer to 40 than 20 depending on the month, so I wouldn't be surprised if 20/month works out once you account for teens having a higher count and the elderly having a lower count

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u/f1g4 Dec 01 '22

Admiteddly it's on the higher end and ON AVERAGE it's pretty high considering everything. But ballpark is there even if you take a lower end case as average (like 5 times a month, which is imho "low") it would be slightly different and probably more accurate. But didn't really want to think about it too much 🤣 I guess we could counter it with the fact that 6 conception per life is too on the higher end (for western civilization).

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u/NorthernerWuwu Dec 01 '22

As a man in his 50s, 20x a month is a low estimate for me at least. Hey, it is good for the prostate!

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u/JCPRuckus Dec 01 '22

20 times having sex, or 20 ejaculations? Because if you're masturbating that's still a "wasted" ejaculation.

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u/Ohgodgethelp Dec 01 '22

5 times a month. Heh.

Daily until you're old enough your elbow goes.

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u/arbitrageME Dec 01 '22

then you use the other hand

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u/czk_21 Dec 01 '22

I guess we would need some reasonable statistic for that, but as an average it seems quite high, I very doubt that in their 20s ppl do it every day on average, for example u need to remember that ppl often dont live alone-cant really do it often+ there is other stuff which preocupy the mind like work or schooling and even if they live just with their partner every day still seems way too much and considering 70 year old most might not be at 1x a month even

still again we cant say for certain without proper statistics

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u/BecauseWhyNotTakeTwo Dec 02 '22

Man here, I figure that is an average including up to 10x a day during adolescence and averaging 2x a day until at least thirty or so.

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u/Sidewaysouroboros Dec 01 '22

Love the geeky rabbit hole you went down on this.

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u/MidnightRiddles Dec 01 '22

I just say put a little hat on that 9, stops the real spermies too!

But excellent maths, thx

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u/Brilliant-Chip-1751 Dec 01 '22 edited Dec 01 '22

Birth control doesn't cause "conception and discard". That's a common misconception thanks to the good ole FDA labeling not reflecting actual science. All types do some combination of preventing fertilization through preventing a mature egg being present and thickening the cervical mucus so it's harder for them to swim. Literally half of Americans wouldn't be born if birth control did that lol. Even Plan B does not impact implantation.

Regardless, 40-60% of fertilized eggs are aborted by the body(the immune system sees them as a parasite). You need at least 10+ quality spermies according to your math

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u/f1g4 Dec 01 '22

I forgot that birth control stops ovulation. I'm an idiot.

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u/vyqz Dec 01 '22

Sir this is a Wendy's

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u/Resigningeye Dec 01 '22

Seemingly Semeningly China

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u/Ganthritor Dec 01 '22

Data was too beautiful

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u/Comrade_Hussar Dec 01 '22

They must fertilize

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u/Aelfhelmer Dec 01 '22

Anyone else notice every country dipping down and left on the last frame?

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u/Zosymandias Dec 01 '22

2020 was a hell of a year.

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u/Aelfhelmer Dec 01 '22

What happened in 2020? I’ve been a bit out of the loop. /s

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u/Gabstra678 Dec 01 '22

I think they’re talking about the Australian wildfires

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u/bruhImatwork Dec 01 '22

I remember the pope slapped some lady. Maybe that was it?

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u/Fearzebu Dec 01 '22

Did the pope actually slap a lady? 2020 was such a crazy time, particularly in the USA with civil unrest and a major election, that I honestly think I could’ve missed that headline lmao, and I have no idea if you’re joking or not

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u/Gabstra678 Dec 01 '22

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u/Fearzebu Dec 01 '22

Oh wow lol, I always would’ve imagined that the papal security would do a bit more for someone giving the pope a hard tug. I wonder if she’ll wind up in purgatory for that

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u/Gabstra678 Dec 01 '22

She did the sign of the cross right before it, so it cancels out lmao

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u/flaccidcolon Dec 01 '22

Holy shite I'd forgotten about that. What a wild time 2020 was. 0/10 would not recommend

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u/BirdLawyerPerson Dec 01 '22

The Kobe Bryant mourning period.

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u/gustav_mannerheim Dec 01 '22

No they must mean murder hornets

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u/Affectionate-Set4208 Dec 01 '22

I think it would be easier to tell what didn't happen

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u/sundae_diner Dec 01 '22

Sex. Lots and lots of sex didn't happen.

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u/kanadia82 Dec 01 '22

It’s interesting that data for the year 2020 shows a plunge in birth rate. Most babies born in 2020 were conceived before March, so we shouldn’t have seen such a fierce drop in just that year, and would have expected to see it in 2021.

So the drop probably indicates that a lot more miscarriages or stillbirths happened, which is horribly sad.

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u/Maleficent-Aurora Dec 01 '22

Covid is a fuck :( i personally know several women that lost over that last 2 years.

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u/chilispicedmango Dec 01 '22

I still find it hilarious that people thought work from home during lockdowns would lead to more babies being born

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u/Affectionate-Set4208 Dec 01 '22

If it was just that, then maybe, but it was so much more than that

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u/chirandra Dec 01 '22

"Back... and to the left!"

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u/ApartSpend Dec 01 '22

Whos the light blue one at 0,9 HDI and 3 fertility?

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u/YATr_2003 Dec 01 '22 edited Dec 01 '22

This is probably Israel, which in 2020 had fertility rate of 2.90 with the HDI of 9.92.

According the Central Bureau of Statistics (in 2020, in Hebrew) there is a big difference in fertility rate between the different ethnic/religious/socio-economic groups in the country. I assume this is the reason that Israel is an outlier as some of those groups are closed, traditional, or live far from central Israel where much of the economic activity takes place, and the HDI of those groups is in practice much lower than the aggregate HDI of the country.

A woman in the highest socio-economic cities was expected to give birth to 1.95 children, while a woman in the lowest socio-economic cities was expected to give birth to 5.36 children.

When breaking it down by religion Arab women had fertility rate of 2.82 while "Jewish and other" had 2.88. Breaking it does further, Jewish women had fertility rate of 3.00 (ultra-orthodox 6.64, religious 3.92, secular 1.96) while women with no religious designation had fertility rate of 1.35.

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u/sundae_diner Dec 01 '22

One outcome of this is that the ultra-orthodox was a tiny % of Israel in the 50s but they have out-bred the other denominations to having 13% of the population today.

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u/MochiMochiMochi Dec 01 '22

This will likely fuel a lot of conflict in the region. All those marginally employed, orthodox boys with nothing to do.

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u/Temporary-Alarm-744 Dec 01 '22

Taliban 2: electric boogaloo:Now with curly Q's

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u/Orngog Dec 01 '22

Hey this is Israel we're talking about, mind your language!

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u/innergamedude Dec 01 '22

This will likely fuel a lot of conflict

Your use of the future tense here is quaint.

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u/kalasea2001 Dec 01 '22

This will likely fuel a lot of conflict

everywhere. This trend exists in America as well.

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u/DaFugYouSay Dec 01 '22

Yeah but a good share of them can't find jobs that end up moving to the city and then we turn them into liberals.

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u/ifsavage Dec 01 '22

Already is.

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u/Registered-Nurse Dec 01 '22

Other denominations are already upset because the ultra-orthodox Jews don’t work. They live off a stipend that comes from the government. And where does this stipend come from? From regular people’s taxes. If I were a non-Orthodox Israeli, I’d be pissed too if my tax money is used to feed unemployed religious nuts. They have like 5-7 kids on average so their population is exploding.

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u/BrainOnLoan Dec 01 '22

It'll eventually collapse as a system.

I wonder what the threshold is. A quarter of the population?

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u/Registered-Nurse Dec 01 '22

Probably a quarter. They’ll get there very quickly too.

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u/arbitrageME Dec 01 '22

They live off a stipend that comes from the government

wait why? can they claim like "clergy" status or something? and this isn't from some fund they set up to begin with? Can anyone claim to be ultra-orthodox? This seems so ass-backwards. What do they do all day? Pray? Be holy? Fuck like bunnies?

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u/Registered-Nurse Dec 01 '22 edited Dec 01 '22

Hasidics believe the only job for men is to study the religion, so that’s what they do all day, study the Torah. Women typically work, usually at Hasidic businesses. But you can’t survive off one income, so the government PAYS the men to study the Torah. But the non-Hasidics have to work and pay taxes to support them.

It’s similar in NYC, they get so much government support in terms of free healthcare and food stamps. Honestly, I feel like they’re abusing/exploiting the system. Since NYC is a large city, it doesn’t affect the school system, but in smaller villages where Hasidics are the majority, the schools are so shitty because they don’t have to pay taxes. So non-Hasidics get terrible education from these underfunded schools.

There is a small minority of Hasidics that contribute to the outside society and they’re one of the nicest people I have met, but the majority are entitled and just plain nasty to the rest of us. They don’t even like other Jewish people :|

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u/cococolson1 Dec 01 '22

How the fuck do Israeli tolerate this. "My religion makes me a freeloading piece of shit because I am the REAL believers you fake believers need to pay me"

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u/sticklebat Dec 01 '22

Many Israelis hate it. Many others tolerate it because it essentially buys votes and therefore power. Israel has a coalition parliamentary system and the religious Jewish parties are big enough on their own that it’s fairly difficult to form a governing coalition without them. That means you either cater to what they want to get them on board, or you fail to build a coalition and go back to another round of elections.

To change this you’d need to have a very strong coalition without them, and that’s just not realistic. If you can manage without them, it will necessarily be by slim margins, unless/until the political landscape changes significantly.

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u/moptic Dec 01 '22

They also don't serve in the armed forces IIRC.

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u/Temporary-Alarm-744 Dec 01 '22

It's better than the alternative of roving fundamentalist milititant groups.

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u/_Alleggs OC: 3 Dec 01 '22

It's actually quite interesting to think of how religions evolve - religions promoting high fertility have a selective advantage eventually leading to the extinction of other religions with disadvantageous "traits"

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u/mandiblesofdoom Dec 01 '22

Israel has a growing ultraorthodox population - they have large families.

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u/StShadow Dec 01 '22

Far from central Israel is like 40 km or something?

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u/YATr_2003 Dec 01 '22

Yes, about 40km from Tel Aviv is the outskirts of the metro area, and further than that the quality of life can decrease substantially, including lower level of healthcare, less employment opportunities, lower education level etc.

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u/Purpoisely_Anoying_U Dec 01 '22

A woman in the highest socio-economic cities was expected to give birth to 1.95 children, while a woman in the lowest socio-economic cities was expected to give birth to 5.36 children.

That's basically true of every country? In the US it's 5x higher in low income vs high

https://www.businessinsider.com/sexual-activity-and-birth-rates-in-america-2015-3?amp

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u/Cory123125 Dec 01 '22 edited Dec 01 '22

(ultra-orthodox 6.64, religious 3.92, secular 1.96)

How are people not massively afraid of this?

ultra-orthodox beliefs are not compatible with modern society.

What are you going to do when people with those beliefs outnumber you?

You're fucked.

Goodbye to any form of social progress.

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u/FudgeAtron Dec 01 '22

From what I've read ⅓ of those born into ultra-orthadoxy leave it. So it's not quite as bad as you might imagine.

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u/TurkicWarrior Dec 01 '22

1/3? I find that very hard to believe. Where is the source for that?

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u/LackingC10H12N2O Dec 01 '22

What do the different colours and data points represent? Which countries are shown?

Also, at the end all the points shift left. Is this related to the pandemic?

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u/Zosymandias Dec 01 '22

The different colors are there to just tell the points apart the shade has no meaning. Almost all countries are represented here a few may be missing either HDI or Fertility Rate for a few years and will not show up in that year but will be present in others. I think notably North Korea isn't present at all due to lack of HDI data.

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u/ATXgaming Dec 01 '22 edited Dec 01 '22

Is the length of the tail proportional to the size of the derivative?

Quite aside from it being apt for these data, it’s really cool how the direction of the tail gives you an instant look at the trend in direction at any given moment. I’ve never seen anything like this before but it could have so many applications.

From the two big outliers, I assume the size of the body is the population of the countries?

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u/Sregor_Nevets Dec 01 '22

Can’t wait to see “sperm scatters” on a spreadsheet drop down.

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u/janitorial-duties Dec 01 '22

Looks like it is proportional since the tail needs to “catch up.” Good point!

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u/-Rivox- Dec 01 '22

What about the point size? What's its meaning?

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u/Zosymandias Dec 01 '22

Point size relative to population of that country during that year.

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u/Geodude333 Dec 01 '22

Guessing that means the two biggest are India and China? With China probably being purple due to having the lower fertility indicative of the one child policy?

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u/okijhnub Dec 01 '22

In 2016 it became two child policy, then three, as of july 2021 there are no longer restrictions

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u/Schootingstarr Dec 01 '22

Because nobody be having children. How could they? China fell into the same trap as the other capitalist countries, where having children becomes a heavy expense rather than a pension plan

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u/kupuwhakawhiti Dec 01 '22

I’m not sure exactly what this visualisation is showing, but there has supposedly been a drop in the number of babies being born over the last two years in some countries. So the vis stops tantalisingly early.

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u/glieseg Dec 01 '22

It shows the connection between HDI and inverse fertility rate. Basically, the more developed a country is, the fewer babies are born.

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u/EhliJoe Dec 01 '22

In poorer regions it's because more kids survive childhood when your country is more developed. Just no need to get so many kids.

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u/NotSoMuch_IntoThis Dec 01 '22

Plus kids are retirement plans for the poor. They don’t have the luxury of being able to just, stop working. But humans bodies have expiration dates. Having kids is essentially raising someone to take care of you when you no longer can do it yourself, while you give them free childcare when they’re out working.

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u/Brilliant-Chip-1751 Dec 01 '22 edited Dec 01 '22

As someone with hospice experience: it's often a failed plan. Many adult children feel guilty, but picking up their lives/jobs/kids to take care of their parents is often(usually) impossible. This is true regardless of cultural expectations. Even when it does happen, this kind of care often widens generational women's/class/race inequalities unfortunately.

Kids are NOT an insurance policy. You don't want to end up a disappointed patient without savings, believe me

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u/wallpaperwallflower Dec 01 '22

Lack of birth control is still an issue in low HDI areas, too

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u/textingperosn Dec 01 '22

Imagine having 6 children because you expect at least 4 of them to die. Unfathomably cruel.

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u/German_PotatoSoup Dec 01 '22

And yet if previous generations had not done so, the human race would have died out long ago.

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u/textingperosn Dec 01 '22

And all it took was a few billion deaths to disease, violence, and poverty. But now we have the privilege of clocking into work for 8 hours a day.

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u/kupuwhakawhiti Dec 01 '22

Thanks, I mostly wasn’t sure what exactly fertility rate was. But I googled it.

The total fertility rate in a specific year is defined as the total number of children that would be born to each woman if she were to live to the end of her child-bearing years and give birth to children in alignment with the prevailing age-specific fertility rates.

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u/goodDayM Dec 01 '22

Glance at a simpler chart: Birth rate by family income in the U.S.. It shows as household income goes up, birth rate goes down.

In other words, similar to OP’s chart: families with the most financial means to support children actually choose to have the fewest.

Studies have found that as women gain opportunities in education, career, travel, they increasingly choose those opportunities over having a lot of kids.

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u/Brilliant-Chip-1751 Dec 01 '22

Who would've known that when women learn they'll be ripped hole to hole they're more likely to choose other options lol

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u/myleftone Dec 01 '22

Didn’t want to make the joke prematurely.

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u/Zosymandias Dec 01 '22

It was going to come eventually.

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u/Flowersforpepesilvia Dec 01 '22

Seems you were stiff for that rebuttal

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u/DefNotMy47thAcct Dec 01 '22

How long did you wait to bust that one out?

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u/IvanEedle Dec 01 '22

nut long tbh

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u/Boring_Philosophy160 Dec 01 '22

What a chart to celebrate the end of No Nut November. Can’t beat that!

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u/drizzrizz Dec 01 '22

I beat it today!

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u/Kurappu Dec 01 '22

I didn't want to make the joke premaritally

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u/bourbonboymke Dec 01 '22

The Human Development Index is a statistic composite index of life expectancy, education, and per capita income indicators, which is used to rank countries into four tiers of human development.

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u/memoxipom Dec 01 '22

Nicely illustrated! How apt!!

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u/comparmentaliser Dec 01 '22

This day set has laid the foundations of one of the classic case studies of data visualisation - there’s a Ted talk from ages ago of the guy who popularised it. The addition if ‘tails’ is n this version is a really nice touch.

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u/eamonbohan Dec 01 '22

The statistician I think you’re referring to is Hans Rosling, of GapMinder.

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u/Dottie_D Dec 01 '22

It is, and I’ve loved that video forever. I was in Decision Support for my hospital, and Hans Rosling was my icon, my idol, as is Edward Tufte.

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u/peppi0304 Dec 01 '22

What does the size represent?

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u/FactoryBuilder OC: 1 Dec 01 '22

The better your life is, the less you have to rely on quantity chance survival of one of your kids.

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u/notepad20 Dec 01 '22

Anecdotally, plenty of people around me want more kids.

But you need too: - establish skills and career in early adult hood. - save and buy property after that. - then you can start having kids 30-35. - you ultimately still need two incomes to have suitable quality of life, when does mum go back to work? Howuch time.can she have off without tanking skills or job opportunities?

For a lot it's just no feasible to have more than 1 or 2 and still meet the other expectations. If you want 5 kids your not ever going to be taking them on a trip overseas.

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u/I_FAP_FOR_SPORT Dec 01 '22

Surprisingly 35+ is considered a geriatric pregnancy

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u/forevabronze Dec 01 '22

Maybe, but probably has to do with women rights more. High women rights = high HDI = Low birthrate.

Less likely to shitout 6 kids when she got a career, her own personal life and get married at 30 instead of 14

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u/Apneal Dec 01 '22

That would be a good explanation, if that tracked. Women's rights has trended up on average but not in every country. Countries which have stripped women's rights seem to also trend downward in fertility. It could be a dangerous thing to explain away the global drop in fertility. Correlation != Causation. There's a questionable study that implies global sperm viability has dropped over 60%, if corroborated, that would be hard to explain away so conveniently.

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u/textingperosn Dec 01 '22

Imagine having 6 children because you expect at least 4 of them to die. Unfathomably cruel.

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u/sarakeram Dec 01 '22

That's not it. Low development means, also people aren't educated properly, don't know about contraception, just don't think that far ahead about "can i afford to bring up that many kids", also in undeveloped counties more kids means more helping hands in household as you age. If you are farmer or something, that means a lot.

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u/lavahot Dec 01 '22

That's life. And has been for as long as we've been a species. We are only now escaping it.

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u/37Schmeckles Dec 01 '22

Id love this to have a legend with the colours representing continent; would add a great, easily discerned segmentation to rhe data points.

Awesome chart already, thats be icing.

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u/ILikeNeurons OC: 4 Dec 01 '22

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u/mastah-yoda Dec 01 '22

Linda Scott - The Cost of Sexism

Covers this topic quite well. It's a heavy read, mind you. It's heavy and difficult because it's factual.

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u/dyingprinces Dec 01 '22

Women in ancient Sparta usually didn't start having children until they were in their early '30s. Apparently after several generations, Spartans figured out that young mothers were more likely to raise shitty kids than those who had more time to figure out themselves and the world around them.

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u/mastah-yoda Dec 01 '22

Wow, are you serious? Can you give me some source or something for that? I'm genuinely curious!

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u/dyingprinces Dec 01 '22

A lot of info out there, but this is an okay place to start. Women in Sparta married later, often had multiple sexual partners, and husbands under 30 weren't even allowed to live with their wives. Girls and boys in Sparta were also fed the same amount, due to the belief that both parents had to be strong to produce the best offspring.

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u/itsfreepizza Dec 01 '22

Dang I think I can see that.

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u/TomatilloAbject7419 Dec 01 '22

Is that France swimming for 4 over there all the way at the right?

I kinda wanna know who is who here

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u/Zosymandias Dec 01 '22

This spermoid is France.

https://i.imgur.com/tW62HNm.gif

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u/lo_and_be Dec 01 '22

What is the other small blip to the right that disappears early? Is it one of the French dependencies?

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u/TheSweetestKill Dec 01 '22

It's just the animation looping

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u/spicypond Dec 01 '22

What do the colors signify?

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u/Zosymandias Dec 01 '22

Nothing they are just there to tell the data points apart so you can follow one and see how it progresses.

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u/hswerdfe_2 OC: 2 Dec 01 '22

It would be nice to see labels of country names and a legend of color. Like I think I see China, India, USA and Israel. But like those are the only ones I am sure of.

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u/MrFiendish Dec 01 '22

People talk about decreasing fertility rates like it’s a bad thing…

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u/[deleted] Dec 01 '22

We don't know anything about the color and size of the little guys. Don't you think a legend is worthwhile?

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u/dj_blueshift Dec 01 '22

Relevant point of interest: in countries where infant mortality is higher, the fertility rate is also higher. After mass polio vaccine initiatives in said countries, the fertility rate began dropping as evolutionary pressure to produce more offspring to make up for those lost in infancy declined.

Sources:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK233807/
https://www.ageing.ox.ac.uk/download/143

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u/233C OC: 4 Dec 01 '22

"In memory of Hans Rosling"

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u/1kearthspirit Dec 01 '22 edited Dec 01 '22

How do you calculate fertility rates? Then what sample sizes do they use? Honest questions, I really don't know anything about this field.

Also this visualization is cool as hell. Great job.

edit: so I was way off, people answering below but the WHO has all the datas and references below.

https://www.who.int/data/gho/indicator-metadata-registry/imr-details/123#:~:text=An%20age%2D%20or%20age%2Dgroup,%2C%20territory%2C%20or%20geographic%20area.

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u/jwill602 Dec 01 '22

We generally know how many adults there are in a country and how many children are being born.

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u/1kearthspirit Dec 01 '22

That would be considered birth rates wouldn't it? If I had to guess you could calculate fertility rates using birth rate as a variable but I'm not sure what else would go into that equation.

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u/JimOfSomeTrades Dec 01 '22

In case you didn't get closure on this thought: birth rate would be measured in babies per year, or percentage of the population born each year. Fertility rate would be measured in babies born per woman, or (typically) babies born per 1,000 women.

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u/eric2332 OC: 1 Dec 01 '22

You measure what % of 20 year old women gave birth in the past year, what % of 21 year old women, what % of 22 year old women, and so on for every age. Then you add all those numbers up, and you get the total number of births by a woman who lived her whole lifespan under current conditions.

To do this, for every baby you just need to keep track of how old their mother is at birth. (This is why we talk about maternal rather than paternal fertility - to track paternal fertility you would have to identify the father and how old they are, but the father's identity is sometimes unknown or disputed)

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u/timbus1234 Dec 01 '22

just looking at the trend line.. anything with a HDI of 1 has a fertility rate of 0?

Is that what i'm supposed to conclude from this data?

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u/Zosymandias Dec 01 '22

The linear line doesn't seem like a good fit but the exponential seems better which looks like it leads to a fertility rate around 1.3

https://i.imgur.com/hfCJOo0.png

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u/timbus1234 Dec 01 '22

so just to word that a little differently...
in a developed country the population will eventually die out as it fails to replace itself?

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u/creditnewb123 Dec 01 '22

I’m don’t think we can draw that conclusion. Yes, that’s the logical result of the current trend, but that trend is based on relatively recent history. There are a couple of other futures I can imagine off the top of my head, here is one of them:

1) All countries become highly developed and the fertility rate of the entire world drops below replacement. 2) Over time this causes a LOT of issues, and eventually economic decline 3) this leads to the failure of healthcare systems 4) this leads to increased infant mortality rates 5) this causes fertility rates to increase again

I’m not an expert and have no idea if this will happen. I just wanted to give one example of an imagined future in which this trend changes

TLDR: the trend does lead to what you said, but there’s no reason to assume the future will follow that trend indefinitely

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u/peterskurt Dec 01 '22

Lots of questions of which is which country, but high points for creative presentation.

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u/pijota56 Dec 01 '22

This visualization looks like matplotlib, but how is it done? Are you capturing individual images and putting them together as a video or are you using something else?

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u/Zosymandias Dec 01 '22

it is made in r using ggplot and gganimate

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u/AM_Kylearan Dec 01 '22

I wonder - perhaps we just discovered the Great Filter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter

Advancement of technology leads by some set of mechanisms to a failure to thrive as a species? Lack of challenge leads to stagnation and failure?

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u/Squirrel_Q_Esquire Dec 01 '22

I’m actually here early enough to make the first joke?? I’ve been training for this!

Alright gimme a second and let me make sure I get this right.

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ahem Sperm!

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u/jwill602 Dec 01 '22

Top comment I see, at least 3 minutes before you, was comment on how apt the illustration was

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u/Squirrel_Q_Esquire Dec 01 '22

Damn it, I must’ve already clicked on the thread before they commented.

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u/fredandlunchbox Dec 01 '22

Is the Y scale correct? There are that many countries where the average number of babies per woman exceeds 6? That seems insane. For every woman that fails to have any children, there’s one that has 12?

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u/returnexitsuccess Dec 01 '22

The scale is correct, though by 2020 there is only one country exceeding 6, which is Niger. For lesser developed countries there is often high infant mortality and also a dependence on children to help labor in an agrarian lifestyle. I’m sure poor access to contraceptives keeps that number high as well.

Even in the United States, on one side of my family I’m the first generation of less than 8 children for at least the past four generations, possibly more.

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u/Aqueilas Dec 01 '22

Now correlate that with GDP per capita ppp, and not surprisingly you will see that fertility rate drops as people's life quality increases.

Why? Because of several factors like:

  • Better access to condoms and other prevention
  • Women getting into the jobmarket and having a career
  • Having public elderly care makes it so it is no longer necessary to have children to care for you when you get old
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u/Tsiox Dec 01 '22

If you want people to stop procreating, make their lives nice. Humans have ALWAYS followed this, it's nothing new.

If people were serious about combating all issues environmental, this would be the first plank in the platform.

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u/jrhoffa Dec 01 '22

Oh, come on. I see men ejaculating praise for this spunky chart, but the omission of data labels is permanent grounds for jismissal.

But I'll let it slide since I got to make seven puns.

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u/[deleted] Dec 01 '22

What's the one that has an HDI of approx 0.9 and a Fertility rate of approx 2 in 2010?

And the one that kinda falls behind (top left) towards the end?

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u/JoshTheWhat Dec 01 '22

Is this made with ggplot2? How did you implement the tail animations?

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u/ger_my_name OC: 1 Dec 01 '22

Looks like shadow-wake() in gganimate.

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u/shamus150 Dec 01 '22

Is "fertility" the right word here? I presume this is measuring number of offspring (per two capita?), rather than actually how fertile people are?

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u/Vanpotheosis Dec 01 '22

Fertility or birth rates?

There's a huge difference.

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u/Honair Dec 01 '22

Please help this old man understand…… What does this mean? The fewer children the better the lives of those here on earth?

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u/confuseddhanam Dec 01 '22

Not related to the fertility piece, but the near universal positive movement on HDI is awesome.

Human progress is the most underrated narrative. We have so much to lose breaking the institutions and systems that have been put in place over the last several decades.

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u/Hillman314 Dec 02 '22

It’s almost like as the odds of your child dying of hunger and disease decrease, the need to have 10 of them so a couple make it to adulthood decreases.

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u/Altofaltception Dec 01 '22

How does your data source define HDI?

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u/jwill602 Dec 01 '22

I thought there was only one number calculated for each country? Are there alternative formulas?

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u/profkimchi OC: 2 Dec 01 '22

One of my favorites here. Well done OP.

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u/[deleted] Dec 01 '22

[deleted]

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u/Zosymandias Dec 01 '22

I was thinking about trying to plot something closer to that but I couldn't decide on a metric so I just used HDI since it takes into account many of those types of metrics, like education.

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u/hanshooty Dec 01 '22

Nicely done. What is hdi? Please define the two variables

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u/one-mappi-boi Dec 01 '22

HDI is the most commonly accepted measurement of human prosperity (published by the UN), taking into account factors such as health, education, and economic prosperity through a number of different measurements. More information can be found here .

The fertility rate, put simply, is the number of children that the average woman in an area is expected to have throughout their life. This does not take into account child mortality however, so each country will have a different “replacement rate”, aka the fertility rate at which the population will remain stable. For the developed world, this is about 2.1, but can be as high as 3.5 in very underdeveloped areas. The global average replacement rate is around 2.3.

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u/magicroot75 Dec 01 '22

I'd be interested to see this adjusted for the improved life expectancy at birth that is (inherently) correlated with rising HDI.

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u/coralwaters226 Dec 01 '22

And yet there's more people than ever

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u/RegisterThis1 Dec 01 '22

What does the size of the dots represent? Population of each country? What’s the color represent? The HDI is multidimensional and reflects standard of living, education, life expectancy,etc. How would that plot look if HDi was substituted with another index?

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u/mmeestro Dec 01 '22

The abrupt change presumably due to Covid in the very last year is really interesting

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u/Fresh_Macaron_6919 Dec 01 '22

First time in years a post from this subreddit has shown up on my front page that contained beautiful data.

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u/anish9208 Dec 01 '22

that animation is right on the money

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u/Meeganyourjacket Dec 01 '22

These spermies are swimming the wrong way!

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u/dml997 OC: 2 Dec 01 '22

Please make it bigger so it is easier to see; make the trace the full time so we can see the complete trend; and there isn't really any need to animate it.

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u/burajin Dec 01 '22

The sperm thing is funny but I wish they were country flags or something to help distinguish

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u/bucknuts89 Dec 01 '22

Would be helpful to know what Human Development Index means.

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u/masseydnc Dec 01 '22

An animated graph of fertilization rates where the moving dots look like spermatazoa -- now THAT is a beautiful visualization! 🤣

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u/row_0 Dec 01 '22

The data points look like sperms.

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u/Cerricola Dec 01 '22

Economy development depends on human capital which implies more and more years of study to impulse the development, and hence, less fertility. Of course, there's other reasons this is only one cause.

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u/jbrandon Dec 01 '22

They look like little spermies

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u/Aninvisiblemaniac Dec 01 '22

this sucks it barely gives any info

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u/Throwaway_youkay Dec 01 '22

What's the meaning of the hue and the marker size?

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u/SkyKnight34 Dec 01 '22

You've gone ahead and actually made some beautiful data for this sub 🍻

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u/AreYouABadfishToo_ Dec 01 '22

could someone please break this down for me and my simple mind. I need an ELI5 explanation

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u/IronSavage3 Dec 01 '22

As women get more educated they have fewer babies.

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u/MeatManMarvin Dec 01 '22

I see Israel the outlier. Wonder what's so different about them?

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u/Racist-_-Punjabi Dec 01 '22

What is Human Development Index?

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u/_PhiloPolis_ Dec 01 '22

It is an index associated with the work of economist Amartya Sen, which is meant to supplant GDP as an index of holistic development. It includes things like infant mortality rate, life expectancy, literacy, etc.

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u/vimrain Dec 02 '22

Yet somehow she still got pregnant the first time we didn’t use a condom….

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u/abraxas1 Dec 02 '22

Enlightenment has it's costs. Well, we've been here long enough. It's cyber time now.

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u/Yankee1234 Dec 01 '22

This chart sucks. No legend. No details. It’s like all people care about is making it look cool but forgot what they learned in high school math class.

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u/Pepepipipopo Dec 01 '22

Ah plotly color scheme always so cute also how did you made the markers have the little tail move so smooth I always use gapminder and they jerk from one position to the next more than a smooth flow.

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u/Zosymandias Dec 01 '22

plot + transition_time(year) + labs(title = "Year: {frame_time}")+ shadow_wake(wake_length = 0.1, alpha = FALSE)

The shadow_wake is what adds the tails.

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u/SvenTheHorrible Dec 01 '22

“Fertility” or “average kids per household”

Having access and knowing how to use birth control does not make people less fertile lol, very strange wording.